Monte Carlo Modelling With Real Weather Data
Run thousands of simulations using actual historical weather sequences at your site. Get P50, P80, and P95 completion dates grounded in 45+ years of real climate data, not generic estimates.
Generic Estimates Undermine Your Monte Carlo Results
Traditional Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis treats weather as a flat percentage or generic 3-point estimate. This ignores seasonal patterns, location-specific climate, and correlations between weather variables.
The result is an S-curve that looks rigorous but rests on a foundation of assumptions. Your P50 and P80 dates are only as reliable as the weather inputs that feed them.
How It Works
Four steps from programme upload to probabilistic completion dates.
Upload Your Programme
Import your schedule from P6, Asta, MS Project, or Excel. WeatherWise reads your activities, durations, and site coordinates.
Build Weather Model
WeatherWise builds a weather risk model from 45+ years of historical data at your exact location, preserving seasonal patterns and variable correlations.
Run Simulations
Run 10,000+ Monte Carlo iterations. Each simulation samples real historical weather sequences so your results reflect actual climate variability.
Get Probabilistic Dates
View your S-curve with P50, P80, and P95 completion dates. Drill down into activity-level risk and export to Acumen Risk or Safran Risk.
Key Features
Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis powered by real weather data, not assumptions.
Real Weather Data
Every simulation iteration samples actual historical weather sequences from 45+ years of ERA-5 data at your exact site. No fabricated distributions or generic estimates.
Seasonal Pattern Preservation
Simulations preserve actual monthly weather patterns. Winter iterations use real winter weather, summer iterations use real summer weather. No flattening of seasonal risk.
Variable Correlation Modelling
Wind and rain are correlated in the real world. WeatherWise preserves these relationships across all weather variables so your risk model reflects reality.
P50 / P80 / P95 Outputs
Get clear probabilistic completion dates at the confidence levels that matter. S-curve visualisation shows the full distribution so you can pick the right target.
Activity-Level Risk Breakdown
Tornado charts show which activities carry the most weather risk. Identify the critical path drivers and focus mitigation where it matters most.
Acumen & Safran Export
Export weather risk distributions directly to Acumen Risk and Safran Risk in the native formats these tools expect. Integrate seamlessly into your existing QSRA workflow.
Probabilistic Dates You Can Actually Trust
See how leading risk analysts replaced weather guesswork in their Monte Carlo models with real data from WeatherWise.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can't find what you're looking for? Book a demo and we'll walk you through it.
How is this different from standard Monte Carlo?▾
What outputs do I get?▾
Can I export to Acumen Risk or Safran Risk?▾
How many simulations does it run?▾
Does it account for seasonal patterns?▾
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Run Your First Monte Carlo With Real Weather Data
No card required. Upload your programme and get probabilistic completion dates in minutes.